3/20/2005

KUFM / KGPR

T. M. Power

 

Is the Social Security Trust Fund a Politically Crafted Mirage?

            Ideologically-driven neo-conservatives claim that the Social Security system is in imminent crisis because it is built around a phony financial system of smoke and mirrors.  Social Security, they tell us, is financially fatally flawed. As with all public programs in the neo-conservatives eyes, Social Security simply has to be abandoned and replaced with private savings accounts.

The neo-con financial sham argument focuses on the Social Security Trust Fund. This trust fund, it is claimed, is a joke that really contains no real assets. That is an important issue because although the trust fund will not be drawn down to zero for 40 or 50 years, the Social Security system will have to begin drawing on that trust fund in only a little over a decade. If that trust fund really does not exist, in just over a decade, the Social Security system will not be able to make all of its payments to retirees.

The Trust Fund exists because Social Security taxes have been generating revenues at a rate far in excess of what is needed to support existing retirees. That will continue through at least 2018. Then, if there is no change in the taxes supporting Social Security, the Trust Fund will reach a peak and begin to be drawn down, reaching a zero balance 40 or 50 years in the future, depending on who is doing the calculation.  The issue of the Trust Fund is important because it determines whether the Social Security system faces a crisis in a dozen years or almost a half-century from now. A problem that we have 50 years to correct is unlikely to be called a current crisis by anyone. But a complex trillion dollar problem that will be upon us in a little over a decade might well deserve that crisis label.

Since the Trust Fund only holds US government securities, critics claim that it is a sham. The government merely holds IOUs written to itself, something critics claim are merely worthless pieces of paper.  When Social Security begins to draw on the Trust Fund a dozen years from now, the government will either have to raise taxes or increase its borrowing in order to meet its Social Security obligations. It is for that reason that the neo-conservative critics claim that Social Security will begin to collapse in just 13 years.

This view of the Trust Fund is incomprehensible in its confusion. While the rest of the world’s governments and businesses hold US government securities as the most reliable and liquid form of wealth available, the neo-conservatives are trying to tell us that our government’s promise to pay is worthless. This is especially ironic since it is these very neo-conservatives who are driving federal borrowing higher and higher with the federal deficits created by their tax cuts and spending on foreign military adventures.  Why are people, businesses, and governments around the world buying and holding all that US debt if it is worthless? How are the neo-conservatives managing to sell all of these US bonds to fund their adventures and programs if those bonds are “worthless pieces of paper”?

If the neo-conservatives themselves had not borrowed from the Social Security Trust Fund part of the money they needed to fund their various tax cuts and military schemes, they would have had to borrow it from other sources across the country and around the world. To pay interest on that external debt and to pay it off when it came due, the US government would have had to either raise taxes or borrow money again, just as it will have to do when the Social Security Trust Fund or, say, any senior citizen for that matter, begins to be sell off the government securities they own to fund retirement. It does not matter who owns the debt; the US government will have to pay it and it will pay it. The obligation to the Social Security Trust Fund is no different than our obligation to the governments of China, Japan, and Europe, all of whom have lent huge sums of money to the US to fund its our federal deficits.  Actually, owing it to ourselves has an advantage: When we pay the interest and principal, at least that money circulates within the United States rather than giving a foreign government or population a claim on our wealth.

Of course the spending frenzy and deficit madness of the neo-conservatives is imposing a burden on future generations. That debt, including the obligations to Social Security, will have to be paid. But the problem is not with the Social Security Trust fund. It is the federal deficit spending being carried out by the neo-conservatives.

Unless you believe that the US government, after 215 years of paying its debts, is about to become a deadbeat, this nation will be as capable of meeting its financial obligations to the Social Security Trust Fund as it has over the centuries in meeting its other financial obligations.

The question is not whether we can meet those obligations.  We obviously can. It is a matter of whether the neo-conservatives will convince us to abandon the social security safety net we have successfully provided to our elderly, our widows, our orphans, and our disabled over the last 70 years.  The federal government’s abandonment of those people in need may be a noble objective to the neo-cons, but it is really nothing short of public ethical backsliding that will tear at the nation’s social fabric upon which we all ultimately rely.